By Abbati Bako,Uni Kent Alumni And UK’s European University
In human life nothing can be compared with the economy. Human beings are a symbol of economy. Economy has been the root cause of all wars and conflicts in all ages of human history.
For example, the ongoing wars between the Palestinians and Israel or between Russia and Ukraine have been as a result of economic interest; pure and simple. Can the world eradicate wars for human peaceful coexistence? If yes when? and if not now when? Why the United Nations slogan of YOU THE PEOPLE doesn’t work for global peace? Can BRICS nations counter the current global order for global economic interplay?
The ongoing meeting in Kazas City of Russia co-opted some countries such as Egypt, Saudi, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia and President Putin hosted 32 nations and experts assert that 10 BRICS nations have a quarter of global economic interplay meaning that, the BRICS nations are worth $60T global economy. The BRICS nations will try to rival the current World Bank/IMF hegemony in global economic policy. Turkey, Malaysia and Azerbaijan applied for membership and need to be co-opted. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are the original and founding members of BRICS.
Nigeria has been in an economic precarious situation, hardship, meltdown, and debts worth over $120B. The question is why Nigeria didn’t make any move to join BRICS? The answer will come later on based on fact and figure.
*JP MORGAN CHASE’s PREDICTIONS ON NIGERIA BY THE YEAR 2075: FACT OR MOCKERY?
There is no doubt that JP Morgan Bank is one of the biggest private Global Bank in the World that has been working for the past 200 years. The Bank is worth $2.6Trillion and operates worldwide with more than 100 branches all over the world. JP Morgan has a branch in Lagos, Nigeria. And it seems that JP Morgan is the largest global Bank that can make accurate predictions on global economic interplay.
It was a few months ago that JP Morgan Chase made a prediction for Nigeria to be one of the five largest economies in the world by the year 2075. That’s to say this will happen in the next 52 years. But the question one may ask is, are the predictions true, fact or mockery?
There are several questions to be asked as regards to the predictions made by JP Morgan Chase. Experts in political and market economies must critically look into these predictions made by JP Morgan Chase some months ago. How possible are these predictions?
This means that if we look back to history in 1914 when Northern and Southern Nigeria was amalgamated; the country’s population was around 20M. In 1960 when Nigeria got independence from Britain the population of the country was about 35m and 63 years after independence the population has been projected to be around 230M. By the year 2050 Nigerian population will reach 450m according to the United Nations projections. Before the end of the 21s Century the population will be as high as 800m as the global third most populous nation after India and China. Can we trust the prediction of JP Morgan Chase in the coming year 2075?
*China in 1978—–
In the year 1978 China was a nonentity in the global economic interplay despite the fact that they were the most populous country in the world. This means that in every five people in the world (then) one was Chinese. But today China is no longer the No.1 most populous country in the world but India. Most likely the Chinese have no more unproductive population. Does the population count in terms of positive economic development opportunities in the world? This writing understands that the answer is YES and at the same time No!
In 1978 Chinese leaders made a serialized strategic planning based on calendar time-frame for them to be the world’s largest economy. Hence, 40 years after (2018) China became the second largest economy in the world. There have been predictions today by experts that China may overtake America as the largest global economy by the year 2030 or somewhere around those years.
For example, America has the largest global GDP of 26% with only 4% of global population” (George Friedman, USA, 2009) than any country in the world. But “China has the most cash and gold reserves than any country in the world: $3.43 trillion worth, according to data from the World Bank/IMF as at 5th May 2023 Could this be possible and why? Can population play a significant role in leadership or is it a game of positivity, competency, qualitative, patriotism, dedication, and determination of leadership or both points?
What of Nigeria and other African Nations? Recent research indicates that Nigeria is a debtor nation likewise most African Nations and even most global South are debtors to global financial institutions. That’s a Capitalist Oriented World.
The countries with the largest cash and gold reserves from $0 to trillion $2 trillion—–
1. China
$3.43 trillion
2. Japan
$1.41 trillion
3. Switzerland
$1.11trillion
4. United States
$0.72 trillion
5. India
$0.64 trillion
6. Russia
$0.63
7. Hong Kong
$0.5
8. Saudi Arabia
$0.47
9. South Korea
$0.46
10. Singapore
$0.43
11. Brazil
$0.36
12. Germany
$0.3
(Quartz | qz.com Data: World Bank, IMF)
Hence, where are the African countries in those stronger economic calculations made by the WB and IMF? This writing understands that the 56 African Nations may not have up to 2% of global economic strength despite the fact that the Continent has about 35% of global resources. DRC, S/Africa, Algeria and Nigeria are excellent examples.
*I asked (AI)how these countries got developed? Here’s a brief overview of the relationship between the 6 countries and the IMF/World Bank:
1. China:
– Received IMF/World Bank guidance during economic reforms (1980s-1990s)
– Did not follow strict IMF/World Bank conditions, instead implemented gradual, state-led reforms
– Successfully negotiated favorable loan terms with World Bank
1. Dubai (UAE):
– Did not require IMF/World Bank assistance due to oil wealth
– Implemented business-friendly policies, attracting foreign investment
– Partnered with World Bank on knowledge-sharing initiatives
1. Saudi Arabia:
– Received IMF/World Bank guidance during economic diversification efforts (2015-2019)
– Implemented Vision 2030, with some alignment with IMF/World Bank recommendations
– Maintained control over economic decisions, with selective adoption of IMF/World Bank advice
1. South Korea:
– Received IMF bailout during 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
– Implemented IMF-recommended structural reforms, with significant economic restructuring
– Gradually moved away from IMF/World Bank guidance, focusing on domestic-led growth
1. Singapore:
– Did not require IMF/World Bank assistance due to prudent economic management
– Implemented economic development strategies, often in line with World Bank recommendations
– Collaborated with World Bank on knowledge-sharing initiatives
1. Malaysia:
– Received IMF/World Bank guidance during 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
– Implemented some IMF-recommended reforms, but maintained control over economic decisions
– Criticized IMF/World Bank for overly stringent conditions, opting for domestic-led recovery
In summary:
– China and Singapore largely followed their own economic development paths.
– Dubai and Saudi Arabia did not require IMF/World Bank assistance due to oil wealth. South Korea and Malaysia received IMF/World Bank guidance during times of crisis but maintained control over economic decisions making.
By the IMF’s recent reckoning, Nigeria is going to rank as Africa’s fourth-largest economy in 2024. This drop from first place sets the country behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, according to IMF forecasts as of April 2024. Nigeria is estimated to post a GDP of USD 253 billion in 2024, down from USD 477 billion in 2022 and USD 375 billion in 2023.
The continent’s leader is forecast to be South Africa’s GDP of USD 373 billion, followed by Egypt at USD348 billion and Algeria at USD 267 billion. It’s prudent here to consider the stubborn trends that jeopardize Nigeria’s potential for sustainable economic performance.
For one, perennial problems of inequality trouble average Nigerians, while severe poverty is exacerbated by sticky inflation.
What will be the way out for Nigeria? This writing understands that there is the need for Nigeria to join the BRICS NATIONS as soon as possible (ASAP). This is for the fact that there is a likelihood for the global Southern Hemisphere nations to change the pattern of global politics and economic interplay. The global South has 85% of the global population and the Northern Hemisphere has only 15%. Hence, there’s the possibility for the global North to change the pattern of the global governance; although this is probable but the possibility is uncertain.
Dr. Abbati Bako, political strategy and communications consultant @International Political Resource Center, Nigeria and PhD,.Scholar and Researcher in Globalization Policy@Skyline University, Kano Nigeria and Treasurer Kano Chamber of Commerce, Gsm+2349055778899
abbatibako@gmail.com
