Democracy on the Path to Obliteration in Nigeria: For the Attention of Politicians
By Abbati Bako, psc,bsis,Political Strategy and Communications Analyst and Alumnus Kent University the UK’s European University
Democracy does not die with a coup. It bleeds to death from a thousand cuts, and Nigeria is hemorrhaging politically and economically. Insecurity is becoming a daily story in Nigeria. Unfortunately for the past three years of APC’s administration no solution has been found yet especially in the Northern part of the country.
1. The Symptoms Nigerians Feel Every Day and Want to Have a Solution ASAP.
Democracy means “power of the people.” Yet the people have no power over hunger, over kidnappers, bandits or over who rules them. And again, ordinary citizens have no power on inflation, security challenges, poverty and unemployment especially among the youths. Stagflation seems to be everybody’s worries in Nigeria today.
Look at the record since 1999:
1. Votes without voice:
We queue for 6 hours or more to vote, but the courts decide who governs for 4 years (1460 days or 48 months). When the judiciary becomes the electoral college, the ballot box becomes a suggestion box.
2. Poverty with elections:
The 133 million Nigerians are multi-dimensionally poor. Yet we spend N305 billion on elections and N160 million on one SUV for a senator. Democracy is not expensive. Elite greed is. Democracy is created to benefit the ordinary people. Pure and simple!
3. Insecurity without accountability:
Over 63,000 Nigerians have been killed by non-state actors since 2015. But no IG of Police, no Minister of Defence, no Governor has resigned. In a democracy, failure has a price. Unfortunately in Nigeria, it has a promotion.
4. Freedom without justice:
X (Twitter) was banned for 7 months. Journalists are detained under cybercrime law. Protesters are shot at Lekki Toll Gate. Then we celebrate “Democracy Day.” What exactly are we celebrating democracy or democrazy?
2. How Democracies Actually Die:
Harvard scholars Professor Steven Levitsky and Professor Daniel Ziblatt warned: “democracies die when elected leaders subvert them. Not Soldiers. But Politicians”.
Nigeria is Checking all 4 Boxes
Warning Sign Nigerian Example:
1. Reject democratic rules, especially 57 key elements and principles of the system. Especially refusal to transmit results electronically in real time, 2023.
2. Deny legitimacy of opponents. “They are not Nigerians? They want to divide us? Hence, Nigeria must remain united. And opposition parties are given the opportunity.
3. Tolerate violence. Thugs snatch boxes on camera. Nobody was jailed.
4. Curtail civil liberties:
NGO Bill, Social Media Bill, NBC fines.
When you can predict who will win before the first vote, and you can predict who will be jailed before the first trial, that is not democracy. That is elected authoritarianism.
The Economics of Obliteration:
Democracy dies fastest when the stomach is empty. The IMF says Nigeria spends 96% of revenue on debt service. The World Bank says 87 million Nigerians live below $2.15 a day. In his book Professor Paul Collier of Oxford University London (title Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places 2009) “The threshold is around 2,700 US Dollars per capita per year, or around 7 Dollar per person per day. The societies of the bottom billion are all below this threshold: most of them are a long way below it”. In democratic practice in Nigeria for the past 26 years; how much is the minimum wage or how much is the lowest income of an ordinary Nigerian? Can democratic system continue in a country with abject poverty where the majority of people can’t get 3 square meals daily? This is a very difficult issue. Political players must find solutions ASAP.
A hungry man does not defend the constitution. He sells his vote for N5,000, a plate of rice, and a T-shirt. That is not bribery. That is an auction. And in an auction, the highest bidder wins, not the best candidate. So we get leaders who buy power to loot, then loot to buy power again. That loop is how democracy obliterates itself.
The 2027 Elections the Last Exit Before the Cemetery:
In the 57 key elements, rules and principles of democracy number one and most important is “citizen and then followed by election”. According to Paul Collier of Oxford University “elections are the institutional technology of democracy. They have the potential to make governments both more accountable and more legitimate. Elections should sound the death knell to political violence.” Hence, it’s advisable for the current APC’s government to ensure free, fair, credible, violence free elections in 2027 and in accordance with the international standard. That’s democracy for you.
The 10 Washington’s Commandments for the Economic Emerging Markets:
The current President Ahmed Bola Tinubu took all 10 “Washington Commandments or prescriptions” in 29 days: subsidy gone, naira floated, tariffs up 240%. The poor felt it in May 2023. Hence, possibly the elite will feel it in February 2027 elections.
History is brutal: No Southern president who swallowed all 10 IMF pills at once and survived the next election. Jonathan tried 1 pill in 2012. Occupy Nigeria ended his government in 2015.
President Ahmed Bola Tinubu took the prescriptions of 10 IMF pills. If food inflation is still above 30% by December 2026, if 1 dollar is still N1,340 or higher, if petrol still costs ₦1330 per liter and bandits still collect tax in Zamfara, then 2027 will not be an election. It will be a referendum on hunger. And hungry people do not vote for grammar. They vote for bread. Or they burn the bakery.
How to Resuscitate Democracy Before the Election’s Year 2027, Democracy is not INEC. Democracy is Trust:
1. Make elections verifiable, not arguable:
Upload all PU results to IReV before the next PU starts voting. No upload, no collation. Kenya did it. Ghana did it. And Nigeria can as well do it.
2. Cut the cost of government by 50%:
Sell 70% of convoys. Use the money for 10 million school lunches. A child who eats will defend democracy. A child who begs to sell it.
3. Jail one big man on live TV:
Start with one governor, one minister, one party chairman. When impunity sees consequence, democracy sees hope.
4. Pay citizens before you punish them:
Cash transfer first, subsidy removal second. Brazil’s former president Bolsa Família kept current president Lula alive politically. Nigerians “we feel your pain” keeps killing presidents via democratic votes and politically.
5. Return the judiciary to justice:
All election petitions end 90 days before swearing-in. If you are sworn in while your case is in court, the court is a joke and democracy is the punchline. The name democracy is the mother of the system.
Conclusion: Choose
Nigeria has 24 months to choose between two futures:
Option A:
Democracy — where votes count, leaders serve, and courts are blind.
Option B:
Obliteration— where elections are theatre, poverty is policy, and the army is one food riot away from “saving” us again. The people are tired. The youth are leaving. The poor are listening to anyone with a gun and a promise. Democracy is not 26 years old in Nigeria. It is 26 years on trial meaning its on transition. And the verdict comes in 2027. If we want democracy to live, we must make it useful. Because no one defends a system that does not feed them. Time will judge. The choice is ours.
Your Sincerely
Dr. Abbati Bako, Political Strategy and Communications Consultant and PhD,. Scholar/Researcher in Globalization Policy @Skyline university, Kano and former Electoral Commissioner @Kansiec, Special Adviser to Former Governor Dr. AU Ganduje of Kano State and Former Treasurer @Kano Chamber of Commerce and Can be Reached abbatibako@gmail.com
