By Abbati Bako | abbatibako@gmail.com
The push for State Police is back on the table in Abuja. Advocates say it will end insecurity. I say it may end Nigeria’s democracy. Not because the idea is evil, but because Nigeria is not institutionally ripe for it.
1. The Hara-Kiri Warning:
Our Federalism is Too Fragile
Hara-kiri is ritual suicide. Creating State Police in 2026 could be Nigeria’s democratic hara-kiri. Why? Because we lack the guardrails that make decentralized policing work elsewhere.
2. The Numbers Don’t Lie:
We Can’t Even Fund One Police Nigeria’s police-to-citizen ratio is 1:648. The UN benchmark is 1:450. We are 116,000 officers short just to meet the minimum.
Budget? The NPF got *₦969 billion in 2024 less than 4% of the national budget. Over 70% goes to salaries, not operations, training, or tech. If we can’t fund, equip, or train one police force, what magic will fund 37?
3. State Capacity: Can Governors Pay Salaries?
As of Q1 2026, 21 states still owe salary arrears to teachers, doctors, or civil servants. Kogi, Abia, and Plateau owed 6+ months in 2023. A State Police will need barracks, patrol vehicles, AK-47s, pensions, and insurance. Who pays when FAAC is late? A hungry officer with a rifle is not security he’s a risk.
4. The Politics of Policing: What Happens in Rivers, Kano, or Osun?
Look at Lagos LASTMA vs Federal FRSC Look at Hisbah vs NPF in Kano. We already weaponize local outfits against political opponents. In the US, 18,000 police agencies work because of strong courts, FBI oversight, and 250 years of precedent. In Nigeria, when a governor loses in 2027, will his State Police accept the result or protect his Excellency?
India tried it:
state-controlled police became tools of chief ministers. Uttar Pradesh’s police has 2,200+ pending human rights cases. That’s our future without guardrails.
5. What Should Come First? 3 Preconditions for State Police:
Before we decentralize the gun, we must decentralize accountability. Nigeria needs:
Precondition. Why It Matters. Current Status:
1. True Financial Autonomy LGs/States can’t pay police if they can’t control funds LG autonomy bill still not fully implemented
2. Independent Judiciary + Police Service Commission To discipline abuse, resist governor orders PSC vs IGP battles show weakness.
3. 1:450 Ratio + NPF Reform Fix the one we have before multiplying it. We’re at 1:648 and ₦2.1T funding gap.
Conclusion:
Don’t Decentralize Dysfunction:
State Police is not a bad idea. It is a premature idea. Federalism without federal character of institutions is just feudalism with sirens. Yes, the US, UK, and Germany have local policing. But they also have local accountability. You cannot copy the roof before building the foundation. Mr. President, National Assembly: Reform the NPF, hit 1:450, guarantee LG autonomy, insulate the PSC. Do that first. Then talk about State Police. Until then, giving 36 governors their own armies is not democracy. It is hara-kiri and the knife is already at our throat.
Abbati Bako, Political Strategy and Communications Consultant .
