Why President Bola Tinubu’s Political Miscalculation May Prove Costly
By Abbati Bako, International Political Strategist and Analyst
As a seasoned and trained international political strategist, analyst, and card-carrying member of the APC, I am astonished by the APC National Chairman Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to allow key political stakeholders to defect from the other political parties to APC in a hurry. Meaning that it could have been delayed until next year 2026. It’s only two years into President Tinubu’s 4 year term. These political calculations may likely give opportunity for opposition parties to recalculate, analyze ways and means on how to defeat the ruling party APC in the coming elections year 2027. This move reeks (suspicious) of political harakiri, a miscalculation that may likely have far-reaching consequences in the long run.
*The Importance of Timing in Politics:
Politics is a game of timing, and President Tinubu’s team seems to have misjudged the clock. The defection of governors and other crucial political figures should have been delayed until the year 2026, closer to the 2027 elections. This would have allowed the APC party to maintain a united front and build momentum for the upcoming campaign next elections year 2027. Political timing is one of the most important components in winning election.
*The Electoral Landscape:
The current state of the nation does little to inspire confidence among voters. Poverty, hunger, inflation, insecurity, and unemployment – particularly among youths – are rampant, especially in the North. Take note that 1/4 of voters are located in the North Western States of Nigeria. Meaning that, a Presidential candidate in Nigeria must try to capture three KKK States in the North West for him to win the Presidential election due to their vast population in the country. These pressing issues will make it challenging for President Tinubu and the APC party to convince voters to grant him another four-year term.
*Economic and Security Challenges:
The government’s economic and security policies, coupled with stagflation, may lead to voter apathy in the 2027 elections (in 1999 57% voted, in 2011 about 37% voted but in 2023 I think only 23% voted). This creates an opportunity for coalition parties to capitalize on the discontent and strategize against President Tinubu and the APC party.
*The ADC Wildcard:
Rumors suggest that the opposition may adopt the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their platform. If true, this would make it difficult for President Tinubu’s team and strategists to identify the ADC’s soft theorem states, battleground states, and swing states. Nigerians may view the ADC as a new, unfamiliar entity, further complicating the president’s re-election bid in the election year 2027. The Qualation party may convince Nigerians that the ADC is a fresh and new party that will bring positive changes in the country.
Conclusively, President Tinubu’s decision to allow key stakeholders from PDP and other political parties to defect or to cross carpeted from other political parties may prove to be a costly mistake. Take note that politicians like Engr. Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso and his like is still waiting for the right timing to make decisions (he is unlikely to cross carpet into APC). This writing understands that he seems to be the only politician in the North utilizing political timing to make a political decision and mostly his target audience are youths between the ages of 18 to 35. With the electoral landscape fraught with challenges, the president’s team must reassess their strategy and work to address the nation’s pressing issues to have any hope of securing re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.
Abbati Bako,Alumni University of Kent,UK’s only European University and International Political Strategy and Communications Consultant, IPRC, Nigeria. abbatibako@mail.com
